Ethiopian death toll from AIDS may double in three years

ADDIS ABABA, April 13 (AFP) — Ethiopia’s AIDS death toll may double to 1.8 million in three years unless steps are taken to reduce current infection rates and care for those already taken ill, according to a US study released here Wednesday.

“The total population lost to AIDS was about 900,000 in 2003 and is projected to reach 1.8 million by 2008 if the present trends continue,” it said, describing a dire situation in the impoverished Horn of Africa nation.

The disease is now responsible for about a third of all adult deaths in Ethiopia and will devastate the economy if left unchecked, said the study, conducted under the auspices of US President George W. Bush’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief.

“The loss of Ethipian citizens in the most productive years of their lives, and related HIV/AIDS morbidity has a detrimental impact on economic growth,” it said.

The 38-page report was issued ahead of a meeting here next month of officials from 15 nations, including Ethiopia, targetted by the president’s plan to pump 15 billion dollars into AIDS relief over five years.

It was compiled by health experts from the United Nations, the United States and the Ethiopian AIDS secretariat and health ministry.

Ethiopia, like other African nations, is particularly vulnerable to HIV/AIDS due to its high birth and malnourishment rates, poor access to health services, low literacy rate and crushing poverty, it said.

In addition, the report said Ethiopia’s military demobilization following the end of the 1998-2002 border war with Eritrea had exacerbated the spread of the disease as some 75,000 soldiers returned home.

At one hospital for current and former security officers and their families in Addis Ababa, 80 percent of the beds are now occupied by AIDS sufferers and the HIV prevelance rate among patients is stands at 30 percent, it said.

In the wake of the demobilization, the HIV infection rate for active duty Ethiopian soldiers in front-line positions along the Eritrean border is six percent and nine percent who are deployed in rear positions, the report said.

In addition to the military, the disease is having a significant impact on Ethiopia’s education sector, where from 1998 to 2000 there was a five percent increase in AIDS deaths among teachers, while a third were absent for one week or more due to an AIDS-related illness or sickness in the family, it said.

According to Addis Ababa, some 1.5 million people out Ethiopia’s 70 milliond population are infected with HIV/AIDS although the World Health Organization nearly doubles that figure, saying it is closer to 2.8 million.

Nearly a million Ethiopian children have been orphaned by the disease and about 5,000 new infections are recorded weekly.

In late January, Ethiopia launched a plan to fight AIDS which will for the first time include the distribution of free anti-retroviral drugs that aims to save 78,000 lives per year and reduce the number of AIDS orphans to 332,000 by 2008.