Friday, March 29, 2024

Sudan Tribune

Plural news and views on Sudan

Sudan New Mandate: Post AL-Bashir arrest and failure of CPA

By Steve Paterno

December 7, 2008 — According to latest reports, the three-panel judge of International Criminal Court (ICC), at The Hague, has already ruled that President Omar al-Bashir of Khartoum will face arrest on almost all counts leveled against him by the ICC chief Prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo. The counts include genocide, crimes against humanity, and war crimes. The long awaited, unprecedented and anticipated ruling will soon be announced to the anxious world.

As an outcome, the international community and its United Nations (UN) body is bracing for the possible reprisal from Khartoum?if any?against the UN personnel, aid workers, and civilians. Khartoum has threatens the international community of dire consequences in an event of issuance of an arrest warrant for President al-Bashir. Thus, Khartoum professes to run-amok to cause indiscriminate atrocities on the international community personnel, humanitarian workers and the civil population as an act of vengeance. Leading with these threats is President al-Bashir himself; he used the Arab-Islamic derogatory expression that all those behind ICC are “underneath his shoe.” His Minister of Justice, Abdel-Baset Sabdarat warned and inferred that the entire region will be in flames if an arrest warrant is issued in the name of President al-Bashir. Bona Malwal, President al-Bashir apologist and advisor stressed on their need to unleash the Janjaweed against foreigners, currently in Sudan.

In anticipation, Prosecutor Ocampo is setting the tone for the world to prepare itself for the soon-to-be-announced ruling on the arrest warrant. Last week, at UN Security Council briefing in New York, Ocampo said, “the judges will rule shortly on” the arrest of President al-Bashir and “it is time to be prepared for their ruling.” He went on to emphasize that it is “crucial that the Security Council is prepared to ensure the implementation” of the ICC’s decision as “the international community cannot be part of any cover-up of genocide or crimes against humanity.” In all, the UN Security Council has comfortably settled that President al-Bashir best option is to face justice.

Time has run out for President al-Bashir. The pressure has come to bear on al-Bashir psychologically; he has been secretly rushed to hospital due to sustained high blood pressure close to heart-attack. The internal wrangling within his National Congress Party (NCP) is salient and visible. It has become obvious that some leaders from within NCP are ready to dump him as a sacrificial-lamb for their survival and for the continuity of the party. Even President al-Bashir’s rhetoric is changing in tone and style of deliveries. Of late, he has been saying that he is willing to step down if that will serve the interest of Sudanese people. Egypt, Sudan’s neighbor to the north, who claim much stakes in Sudan and always interferes in Sudanese affairs, forms part of the mounting pressure against President al-Bashir. The Egyptian President, Hosni Mubarak on his recent surprise visit to Khartoum, was reported to have asked President al-Bashir to resign, given the calamities that President al-Bashir instituted. This blunt request was followed with a series of Egyptian government declarations?suggestive of collaborative mood with the ICC?a complete u-turn by Cairo from its previous stand that opposed the ICC moves against President al-Bashir. For example, Egyptian State Minister for Legal and Parliamentary Affairs, Mufid Shihab publicly said Khartoum should not reject the ICC and that President al-Bashir is not immune from ICC prosecutions.

Obviously, President al-Bashir has exhausted his time and options, and nothing left to save him. The Arab League voices that once seemed to have supported him are turning against him. African Union has gone dead silent on the issue. The UN Security Council has firmly decided to let justice runs its course and allows it to eventually prevail. And the NCP is likely plotting a coup against President al-Bashir on al-Bashir’s watch. Ultimately, new political realities are ushered in the Sudanese political landmark. The much talked about Sudanese elections for 2009, doomed to failure. The Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), signed between NCP and Sudan People Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A), which was only surviving on life-support will either survived in another configuration or completely be dead.

In light of this, an outside intervention, from the international guarantors of the CPA, with the USA help and able leadership is required. The incoming USA administration under the presidency of President-Elect Barack Obama is blessed to have individuals who are dedicated and passionate in resolving the conflicts in Sudan. On the top, there is President-Elect Barack Obama who does not only has affinity to the Sudanese people given his Luo-ancestry, but is quite dedicated and passionate about resolving the conflicts in Sudan, especially the ongoing genocide in Darfur. In the second helm, there is Joe Biden; the Vice President-Elect. He has made his goal of resolving Sudanese conflicts very clear that it does not require any emphasis. Then, there is Hilary Clinton, the incoming top diplomat in the new administration with a track record working for peace in Sudan. Susan Rice who is the designated ambassador to the UN in the incoming administration has built her career working on behalf of the Sudanese people. And hopefully, John Prendergast, a renowned Sudanese activist is honored with the portfolio of Bureau of African Affairs at the State Department in the incoming US administration. A team of such dedicated and passionate individuals, in concert with others, especially with those at the US Congress and civil societies, will salvage the much desperate situation the Sudanese people are facing.

Of course, new realities require new solutions. With respect to the CPA, the new political realities provide great opportunity so that the CPA is finally overhauled, since it actually fails to live up to its great name, implementation timeline, ideals and expectations. Before this new realities even ushered in, the CPA was already painfully dying. (This is best captured in the following excerpts below from an article written by this author in late March of this year with a title, South Sudan must be ruled by U.N. mandate)

“First, the northern partner of the agreement, the National Congress Party (NCP) of Khartoum radical Islamists has reneged the basic tenets of the peace deal?mostly in areas of security arrangement, border demarcation and wealth sharing to make the partnership ineffectual?as it is in their nature and interest not to honor it. As for the Sudan People Liberation Movement (SPLM), the other partner to the agreement, it suffers largely from internal fracture, incompetence, pandemic corruption and lack of vision and strategies to assert any credible leadership in implementing the agreement it signed. All is left is for the CPA to die a painful natural death. In words of many analysts, CPA reached the point of ‘beyond the crisis.’”

The CPA name must be changed to fits with what it actually is, addressing the conflicts and contentions between traditionally South and North Sudan. In Reality, there was never any element of the CPA that was comprehensive to Sudan for it to wrongly carry the name comprehensive. Another excerpt from the article, South Sudan must be ruled by U.N. mandate can help shed light into such reality:

“The war, which was supposed to stop immediately after the signing of the agreement, is continuously being waged mostly through proxies, particularly in the South-North border where it has already claimed scores of lives. It is just a matter of time before the situation is blown into a full-fledged war where it will draw Sudan into square one or as some group of experts asserts, a “resumed war between the North and the South would have set Sudan back for years, if not decades.” It is actually a consensus among experts, predicting a looming South-North war, which most likely will be more dangerous than any wars Sudan ever experienced.”

The fundamental element of the CPA, which is guaranteeing self determination and fulfilling the aspiration of South Sudanese people, must be maintained and strengthened at all cost. More importantly, a new mandate must be devised not only on governing relationship between South and North, but on how South will be governed under the UN for it to gradually attain self-determination. Under the current system, South Sudan fails miserably in governance as indicated in the following excerpts from the same article; South Sudan must be ruled by U.N. mandate:

The Government of South Sudan (GOSS), the supposed sole and legitimate authority in South Sudan is plagued with lack of direction, corruption, tribalism/nepotism and incompetence. Corruption in South Sudan is running wild like a daylight robbery; with allegations of government officials looting public funds in duffle bags. Almost every senior government officials are alleged to have been entangled in corruption in one way or another. It has become impossible to prosecute corrupt officials. It is not surprising that South Sudan anti-corruption commission, mandated to rid corruption admitted publicly that it surrenders fighting corruption. Tribalism and nepotism has become the order of the day and institutionalized; appointment to senior/key civil, military and constitutional positions reflects the self-interest of those in charge by dishonoring competency and representation of the diversity of the people. It is said that it is easy to know a tribe of a minister in GOSS by simply paying a visit to the ministry since most of those employed in the ministries are likely to be from the ethnic group of the minister.

In addition to such worsening situation, as if it is not bad enough, more disappointing practices lead into many South Sudanese populous getting dissatisfied as:

…South Sudan thrived in incompetence. Being incompetent can be defined as “devoid of qualities required for effective conduct of action.” In South Sudan, incompetence is easily facilitated by high level of corruption and proactive tribalism and nepotism. For these reasons, majority of South Sudanese are dissatisfied with their own government. Their hopes on the hype of signing of the CPA have already faded away in a thin air.

A mandated UN governing system for South Sudan to ensure effective transitional interim period for self determination will guarantee some measures of comprehensive peace in Sudan. Having UN mandate to govern has deeply rooted precedents in the world governing system, and in Sudan it will not be in conflict with what is already being considered in other Sudanese marginalized regions like in Darfur where the UN is eking for takeover of the region. One objectives of the CPA was to dismantle Khartoum’s, especially the NCP’s hegemony over power and deprive it from ruling others, but unfortunately the CPA, left intact the powers vested in Khartoum. Therefore, any effort which will result into depriving Khartoum of its influence at this point in time is highly welcome. With Khartoum grieving over the indictment of their President and gearing up for power struggle; South Sudan struggling to govern itself?recedes to statelessness; Darfur up in flames; the other parts of the marginalized Sudanese about to burst; and the CPA being dealt a death blow, it is high time that the course is changed?and change it must.

Steve Paterno is the author of The Rev. Fr. Saturnino Lohure, A Romain Catholic Priest Turned Rebel. He can be reached at [email protected]

10 Comments

  • WordPress › Error

    There has been a critical error on this website.

    Learn more about troubleshooting WordPress.