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Egypt hints at supporting a North-South confederation for Sudan rather than secession

March 21, 2010 (CAIRO) — The Egyptian foreign minister Ahmed Aboul-Gheit suggested that Cairo wants its Southern neighbor to consider the option of a confederation rather than separation ahead of a key vote in January 2011 by South Sudan on whether its citizens want their own state.

Egyptian foreign minister Ahmed Aboul-Gheit listens to president Hosni Mubarak (AFP)
Egyptian foreign minister Ahmed Aboul-Gheit listens to president Hosni Mubarak (AFP)
The 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) created a semi- autonomous government in the south, shared out oil wealth, and promised the referendum, as well as national elections, scheduled for April.

“This referendum will not necessarily be on separation as there would be many options before the Southern voter including the establishment of an independent southern state,” Aboul-Gheit was quoted by Egyptian official news agency (MENA) to reporters during the Darfur reconstruction donors’ conference.

“Egypt wishes [for] Sudan all the best and to keep Sudan united in some form…..not necessarily the old-fashioned way. There is [currently] a Southern government and a President for the South and armed forces for the South and we hope to reach at this moment the option to continue the partnership between the North and South, supported by the people and that everything is done in stability and peace because we do not accept acts of violence between the north and south because this is against the nature of those good people” he added.

Many countries in the region as well as western states are uncomfortable with the idea of having an new state which would be marred by tribal violence and instability under a weak government. There are also concerns that this precedent would encourage secessionists sentiments in the continent.

Egypt has been pressing the North-South rivals in Sudan to delay the referendum and equally the Sudan People Liberation Movement (SPLM) leadership to favor unity in the 2011 referendum.

Last month it was revealed that Cairo will invite Sudanese president Omer Hassan Al-Bashir and his First Vice president Salva Kiir in a “last ditch” to “build a consensus” between the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) and SPLM on a number of issues primarily the country’s unity.

Kiir has told participants at the extraordinary summit of the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) in Nairobi earlier this month that he will not allow any delay in referendum.

“I ardently appeal to you all that the CPA is fully implemented and as per its timetable. I urge you all to recognize and respect the choice of the people of southern Sudan during the 2011 referendum,” he said.

The idea of a confederation has floated in the past during North-South peace negotiations but has quickly died. The confederation model entails a system where two countries achieve a high degree of autonomy while maintaining a minimal central authority in areas such as trade, defense and foreign policy.

Many post-referendum issues have yet to be addressed particularly nationality, national debt, water agreement with the border demarcation process well behind schedule.

Sudan’s north-south war broadly pitted Khartoum’s Islamist government against rebels from the south, where most follow Christianity and traditional beliefs.

Africa’s longest civil war, complicated by issues of ethnicity, oil and ideology, claimed 2 million lives and drove more than 4 million from their homes.

(ST)

45 Comments

  • murlescrewed
    murlescrewed

    Egypt hints at supporting a North-South confederation for Sudan rather than secession
    A well-designed confederation with necessary safety valves for South would be a more favorable option than outright secession. Both parts of Sudan will be at a position to tackle problems facing the country as South would usually work to protect the rights of the periphery groups. Both regional governments would form a federal arrangement that will oversee the constitution and confederation arrangement. It is a far more decent option for Africa and Sudan.

    I would support it as long as it is designed well enough.

    Reply
  • Dengtaath
    Dengtaath

    Egypt hints at supporting a North-South confederation for Sudan rather than secession
    I pressed his excellency the president of South Kiir Mayardit to watch out very carefully, Eypt is working hard to create problem.
    What a damn confederation model proposed by Eypt?
    No confederation, and unity as well.
    God bless south sudan!
    Gentlement and ladies, stop wispering, you have heard the voice of Islamists, they want to crack us down, be remain united and fight Arab Ideologists
    Thanks dengtaath

    Reply
  • Shuggar
    Shuggar

    Egypt hints at supporting a North-South confederation for Sudan rather than secession
    Hello Egypt, What unity you are talking about? Please, let the people of South Sudan after so many years of struggle with the North to decide? Do not hint at a confideration or flint a conspiracy flame.

    Reply
  • Dinka Boy
    Dinka Boy

    Egypt hints at supporting a North-South confederation for Sudan rather than secession
    Mr Egyptian Foreign Minster Ahmed Aboul must know that South Sudanese have been under Khartoum oppression for many years without Egyptian interference.Why?

    I would seriously warn my Southerners that the confederation of Egyptian that they are supporting ressemble the Addis Ababa agreement that was dishonored in 1992 by Jeffery Nimerie.

    We don,t trust this Arab North because we have stayed with them while devaluing the South for centuries. Why South Sudan has no prestige. We have no hospitals, primary let alone universities, we never had power in the government ever since, we never have share of revenues being generated in Sudan. Why Egypt when always converse for impossibilities, who is going to listen to Egypt?

    Why Egypt and many supporters of unity in Sudan not promoting development in the Southern part of Sudan for decades? it is indeed extravagency for you to talk about the gone case. We are gone because Khartoum government are deform which make then not to reform by DR jJohn Garang de Mabior.

    We can not afford any deception again otherwise things will be violated again,and who will be blame? South Sudanese, Salva Kiir and his officials, or Egyptians or North Sudan when their another war. I think if we accept unity of Sudan while we have observed the activities of Khartoum government for so long,then South Sudanese are the one to be blame because Dr Garang and Salva Kiir as well as our heros dead and alive have brought this freedom of choice( referendum).

    South Sudanese must know very well that chance never come twice.
    We need to stop this now through vote since SPLA liberate us through power and effort- liberation.
    Thanks,
    SPLM/A oyeee

    Reply
  • thieleling
    thieleling

    Egypt hints at supporting a North-South confederation for Sudan rather than secession
    Dear Readers,

    The only pragmatic solution to south-North Conflict is Independence South in peace with its neighbors, including North Sudan. Egypt can concoct, twist and even cook it RAW in Sudan, but any alternative other than the independence south is an invitation of another protracted war in Africa continent. If south sudan is weak where anarchy, choas and tribalism rules, then be it.

    The south would rise from its own ruins and build an African country from its ashes!! If Egypt is NOT careful, this would cause regional war in the future. Hosni Mubarak!! Please, don’t play with fire! Leave south sudan alone. let just talk about how to effectively share the Nile Water equally without Egyptian greed. Ethiopia, Uganda, and other neightbors have vest-interests in Nile Water just like Egypt. Let talk these difference out without infringing on south sudanese liberte.

    Otherwise, Egypt will be sorry after setting the house on fire intentionally in sudan!! The war would be at Egyptian’s door and ruins its economic. Egypt should just keep building peace with Israel and continues being client state of America gov’t!!! Don’t play with fire in Sudan!!

    Reply
  • Oduck Bol
    Oduck Bol

    Egypt hints at supporting a North-South confederation for Sudan rather than secession
    That’s shame for Eygpt to hope for confederation in Sudan.
    Where were you Mr Mubarak for more than 25 years in power?.Just stop any sugestion. South have lost more than 3 millions people. Nothing,nothing and nothing will make southern to live togather with northerns.

    We can live as nigbors no problem for that.

    Reply
  • babadit
    babadit

    Egypt hints at supporting a North-South confederation for Sudan rather than secession
    Eqyptian government have nothing to discuss in their own country that is why they want to talk about the unity of south with the Arabs North went the issue was caused by their being negative about southerners since independent of sudan 50 years ago.

    please tell them to stay out of this issue of referandom were southerners are better off than Eqypt and Northerners.
    first of all, south sudan is not and will never be a weaker state as they think could be, citing that it will be marred with tribal clashes and violence that is an insult to a great nation south sudan Republic.

    secondly, Eqypt are having interest in the Nile more than any country that share its. therefore, they think this could be degerous for them if south would become a state of its owm in 2011

    Reply
  • Sudan virus
    Sudan virus

    Egypt hints at supporting a North-South confederation for Sudan rather than secession
    Ahmed, if the current situation between the North and the Autonomy South is full of conspiracy and bulling, what do you expect from confederation? Confederation will most likely spark the worst war in Sudan.

    Egypt never feel sufferings of noon Arabic people this is what my grand parent and i know.

    The situation of south Sudan is quite different from that of other countries you expect to make such decision of secession. South Sudan’s independent was suppressed by the Arabs and the independent of Sudan from the British up to now have done more harm to south than if it were to remain in the colonial hands.

    Kiir,Riak and Amun Never accept such a selfish foreign intervention.

    Reply
  • Gatmi raan
    Gatmi raan

    Egypt hints at supporting a North-South confederation for Sudan rather than secession
    Dear all Readers:

    I think Ngundeng Prophecy that there will be a bloody war before we(the South) gained our independence is coming sooner should Salvatore accepts the following demands by Western Powers:

    Don’t break away from Sudan, West tells South

    By MICHAEL WAKABI (email the author)

    Posted Monday, March 22 2010 at 00:00

    Donor circles want Southern Sudan to drop its bid for independence in the referendum next January, as concerns grow that a rushed secession could trigger turmoil and instability beyond Sudanese borders.

    Related Stories

    Key issues still pending in Sudan peace pact
    In 2005, President Omar al-Bashir’s National Congress Party and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement, led by the late Dr John Garang signed a Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) that ended 22 years of war between the North and South.

    That CPA left the door open for the South to break away from the union if 60 per cent of voters decide so in the 2011 plebiscite.

    Although the United States, which is considered to have a vested interest in the outcome of Sudan’s peace process says it “takes no position on what the outcome of that referendum should be,”

    The EastAfrican has separately learned that key Western democracies and institutions, fearing that independence for the South in its present state could see the area slide into anarchy, have quietly urged President Salva Kiir’s government to go slow on secession.

    “Independence for the South should be put off for a few more years primarily because of lack of capacity in the South to run a stable and secure state,” said a source privy to Western analysis of the evolving situation in Sudan.

    He added: “There is no institutional infrastructure to support a state, so there is a high chance that the country will degenerate into a Somalia-like situation. This would open a ‘corridor of terror’ across the region that could be infiltrated by Al Qaeda and its associates to create instability that would run counter to Western interests.”

    The West is spooked by the prospect of sudden independence for a fragile state — with a corrupt and fractious national leadership, a nearly non-existent civil service, a poorly established local police and professional military — immediately disintegrating into a civil war.

    This could draw the international community into a costly intervention to rebuild a state that few countries want to underwrite in the current economic climate.

    With new discoveries of oil in both Uganda and Sudan and the likelihood of further discoveries in the northeast of the Democratic Republic of Congo, peace in the region is essential to the exploitation of these resources.

    Western strategists believe that even under the best of circumstances, the absence of institutional infrastructure in the South and independent communication links to the outside world mean Juba would remain hostage to Khartoum, making it difficult to get energy and other exports to outside markets.

    Such a scenario would deny the infant state the resources to deliver to the population the promised benefits of independence, leading to high levels of discontent that could result in a breakdown of law and order, said one analyst.

    Other fears revolve around the fact that the South is far from homogenous and united, with a real risk that it could spiral into uncontrolled violence as the different regions jostle over resources.

    Apparently, the West would like to see some slack factored into the timeline for Juba’s independence ambitions, while the shaky alliance between the SPLM and al-Bashir — who has largely been “contained” by the ICC warrants against him — is propped up until such a time that institutional capacity and critical infrastructure have been developed in the South.

    Apparently, Kenya and Uganda, which have separately announced plans to build key road and railway links to Juba, are partly implementing this strategy.

    Reply
  • Time1
    Time1

    Egypt hints at supporting a North-South confederation for Sudan rather than secession
    I think the idea of confederation is good and not good, but even if it has to be considered it means there will be alot of things to be negotiated again, this means more time might be needed to form a new agreement between north and south to form a confederation, some issues will need to be ironed out like trade, presidency, borders and resources sharing, all this will needed more negotiations to add to the CPA agreement, the BIG QUESTION is , where is the time to do all this negotiations? who has the time for this?

    The best way forward is just to leave the CPA to run its course untill it expires in 2011 with the referendum, then if seperation happens , north and south can then start talks on wether they should form a confederation, as south will start governing itself seperately meanwhile north also governs itself, so both sides can then come together and discussed an agrrangement for confederation, that agreement can only be reached after the referendum, so i would urge those who want to see a united Sudan to ask both north and south to look into discussing a confederation after 2011 referendum, it is not possible before the referendum, to insist on any changes before the referendum will be a waste of time and efforts, the best thing is for those parties who want unity to discusses an arrangement where both south and north can come and discuss wether they should foirm a confederation a fter 2011 referendum if seperation happens.

    Reply
  • Gatwech
    Gatwech

    Egypt hints at supporting a North-South confederation for Sudan rather than secession
    Dear readers,

    Where on earth can a handicuffed prisoner set free another handicuffed prisoner? No where!

    All the marginalized people of Sudan (South included) are like prisoners of Khartoum. Until we free ourselves in the South by gaining our independence, there is no way we can assist our other brothers marginalized in the North like the Nuba, etc.

    Khartoum has been manipulating us right from the CPA itself to the present time despite our well educated people. This is simply because the power and money is in the hands of Khartoum. When do you think Khartoum will let go such powers?

    Egyptian’s suggestion is rubbish. This was what Garang wanted to introduce in the later stage in the name of the so-called “inter-alia” wording in the self-determination. This so-called confederation has no room. We are not settling for any thing less than full independence. We need our house freed first before we could design how to free others.

    You can first put off fire from your burning house and make sure it is safe before you could think of helping your neighbors in putting off fire from their burning houses.

    Reply
  • Gatluak Latjor
    Gatluak Latjor

    Egypt hints at supporting a North-South confederation for Sudan rather than secession
    ABU GHEIT should learn from now that the part of Sudan that will be unstable after the separation of southern Sudan is the north. So the Egyptian should start from now concentration on things related with the northern sudan. Northern Sudan is a second Somalia after the separatiop of southern Sudan.Time will prove that.

    Reply
  • Kur
    Kur

    Egypt hints at supporting a North-South confederation for Sudan rather than secession
    Egypt should stop making all these unnecessary noices over the wishes of the people of South Sudan. Why no one suggested confederation when we were suffering fighting for our rights to have freedom in our land? NO to confederation;no to any other evil edea they are thinking of now.

    When the Africans were asking the Europeans colonialists to leave, they used to say that Africa will not govern itself. Tribal wars would break out if would leave Africans. It is the same scare tacticts that are being applied to South Sudan, but we are going to prove all these mallicious prophets of doom wrong. South Sudan will be a model of peace and freedom in Africa. Wait and see.

    Kur

    Reply
  • lino
    lino

    Egypt hints at supporting a North-South confederation for Sudan rather than secession
    Southern Sudan, Abyei, Nuba Mountains, Southern Blue Nile, and Dar Fur should choose their destinies first,and then all the people of Sudan will set under a BIG TREE within the coming 10 years to discuss the TERM of CONFEDERATION later. This option was presented by the SPLM/A during the peace dialouge, but rejected by the other side PERIOD!!!

    Reply
  • Piny Amec Abethool-Jesus
    Piny Amec Abethool-Jesus

    Egypt hints at supporting a North-South confederation for Sudan rather than secession
    Dear readers

    Gatwech, you are right 100% “Egypt’s suggestion is rubbish”. This is one of your best comments. There is not mentioning of any tribe. It is fair and logic to say Egypt does not care about the Sudanese people in general regardless of their region in Sudan.

    Let us just listen to Mary Butuol; Nyankor Mathiang, John Kudusi, Emmanuel Jal, Lucky Dubbe and Bob Marley to wait for January 2011 referendum. let us not waste our time to even listen to what Egypt is suggesting on the day of judgment.

    Any prayer on the day of judgment to Jesus will not save Egypt or any one on earth. It is too late for any rubbish proposal now. Egypt should take it easy.

    Egypt should know that life is sweet to everyone not just for Egyptians. Conflicts traders!

    I don’t know where will Egypt get money when North-South CPA and Israeli- Palestine compressive peace is achieved? Ok Darfur conflict is a new Egyptians’ business.

    I have been in Egypt for few years. What i learned from Egyptians is that they do not cry when their own beloved one died. The closest family members will go to the market and pay criers to come and cry for their dead relative on their behave. How can you pay for some one to cry on your behave for your dead relative.

    Shame on Egypt. This is 100% a curse. Israeli people had cursed Egypt. Egypt need to repent otherwise Southerners may curse them again soon not later. It does not happen in Sudan because we value every individual whether friends or visitors let alone our own relatives.

    What a poor civilization?

    Haa Haa haa… a great civilization! says Egypt to the West and Arab World.

    That is not what we called a “great civilization” in Africa. I will never go for tourism in Egypt, if that evil practice has not changed in Egypt.

    Egypt government should propose a bill in her parliament to change that uncivilized culture or evil practice if Egypt can real give suggestions to other countries. leave Sudanese alone Egypt. We Sudanese can expose your weaknesses more than any other country on earth.

    However, after 2011 referendum voting, all Egyptians will cry no matter what. Egypt will not afford the cost of paying criers who would cry on their behave.

    They have never believe that one day Sudanese will out -smarter them in politics. 2011 will mark the day where all Southerners will forever out-smarter not only the Northerners, but also the Egyptians until the second coming of Jesus.

    Egypt must know that we are not the Sudanese of 1880s and 1990s, but the Sudanese of the 21 first century.

    Egypt got a zero vote in sport elections on who should organize the 2010 world cup in Africa. I can say that Egypt will get a zero vote in south Sudan politics forever since they lost a simple politics of organizing sport event let alone the politics of creating a new state on earth.

    On 10/ 06/ 2010, if i am not wrong, Egypt will not even be part of the 2010 World cup in African Land let alone to organize it. Take it easy Egypt. Don’t cry before the real time for cry.

    Piny Amec Abethool-Jesus

    Reply
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