Home | News    Saturday 24 April 2010

ANALYSIS: Bashir’s victory may not be as decisive as originally thought

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April 23, 2010 (KHARTOUM) — Despite earlier convictions that the Sudanese president Omer Hassan Al-Bashir is headed towards a landslide victory, the voters in the South of the country may prove this theory wrong.

Sudan held its first multi-party elections in more than 24 years, a step that was hoped to bring about the democratic transformation envisioned in the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) signed between the North and South ending two decades of civil war.

The 2010 polls were marred by widespread accusations of fraud and vote rigging as well as boycott of several major opposition parties. The ones that actually took part refused to recognize the results saying the National Elections Commission (NEC) collaborated with the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) to skew results in the latter’s favor.

After bitter internal struggle, the Sudan People Liberation Movement (SPLM) decided to pull out of all elections in the North with a handful of exceptions. Its presidential candidate Yasir Arman, a secular figure from North Sudan and deputy Secretary General, was believed to be one of Bashir’s major challengers.

However, the pullout is technically irrelevant given that the decision was taken after the window for withdrawing meaning that Arman’s name still shows on the ballots.

Today it emerged from several well placed sources at the SPLM and other figures as well as Sudan Tribune reporters, that despite the boycott, Arman has secured an overwhelming majority in the South leaving Bashir trailing well behind. The sources gave figures as high as 90% in favor of the SPLM candidate with as little as 5% for the NCP contestant.

The SPLM SG Pagan Amum hinted to this info saying that the party is not keen on the national presidency pointing out that even if Arman wins, he will not take up the position. He further said that preliminary results show more than 90% lead for Arman in Southern Sudan.

On the other hand, the NCP election officer Ibrahim Ghandour today said that Bashir is ahead of all candidates in South Sudan but gave no exact figures.

The South Sudan corroborative sources said that around 4 million registered voters turned out at the ballot boxes. The total turnout in the entire county is not clear given conflicting numbers of registered voters given to international observers.

The NEC announced that 16 million registered to vote in the entire country . However, some sources close to the NEC say that the actual voters’ figures are around 30% lower equaling a little over 12 million. They note that the 60% turnout figures mean that only 8.5 million turned out to vote with fewer than 50% in the South.

If the numbers are accurate this would theoretically mean that Bashir may in best case scenario barely manage to achieve the 50%+1 majority required to be declared winner.

The NCP said that the incumbent president won 90% of the votes in North Sudan but it is not clear if this includes the Blue Nile, Nuba Mountains and South Kordofan areas which are believed to be hostile to the NCP.

The NEC is already four days overdue in announcing the results of the presidential elections attributing that to delays in receiving results from other states particularly those in the South.

The electoral body has so far made no announcement on partial results for presidential candidate in the South as they did in the North. One senior SPLM official told Sudan Tribune on condition of anonymity that the NEC "is seeking to manipulate the votes and make Bashir’s numbers look better than the actual ones" in light of the disappointing outcome in the South hence the delay.

The NCP leader has made long tours in the South of the country during his campaign promising to respect their choices should they choose secession in the 2011 referendum in a subtle message that voting for him will be a guarantee that the ruling party will abide by the outcome of the self determination vote.

Bashir is seeking a decisive re-election to gain legitimacy in face of the International Criminal Court (ICC) warrant issued for him on charges of war crimes in Darfur.

Last week, an aide to Bashir, Nafie Ali Nafie, said that Bashir’s re-election would prove allegations against him by the ICC as "false."

According to the electoral law, any candidate who does not get the 50%+1 majority then a second round is conducted between the first two winners.

However, the SPLM is likely to skip on a run-off should Arman be one of the two top candidates. Many opposition parties have said they would unite behind the candidate against Bashir in a second round vote. Most observers believe that the SPLM is wary of angering the NCP fearing that this would jeopardize the 2011 referendum.

Earlier this month, the Umma Reform and Renewal Party (URRP) chief Mubarak Al-Fadil told the Dubai based Al-Arabiya TV that Bashir dispatched his adviser Salah Gosh with a firm message to Kiir of the consequences of not pulling Arman from the race.

According to Al-Fadil, the Sudanese president said that under no circumstances will there be a second round in the presidential elections and that the army will stage a coup should it appears that Arman has an edge in the elections.

The SPLM denied the claims by Al-Fadil stressing that they have rejected all similar pleas from the NCP.

(ST)

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Kind regards,

The Sudan Tribune editorial team.
  • 24 April 2010 07:21, by Gatwech

    Dear readers,

    Bashir is still winning. So what is the point of a coward loser, Yasser Aram?

    He pulled himself out fearing that Bashir will defeat him in the majority North and he didn’t believe in the minority votes from the South.

    • 24 April 2010 07:33, by Gatwech

      FACTS:

      Taban Deng Gai was elected by three instititions and NOT by the people of Unity state.

      These institutions include South Sudan presidency (Salvatore Kiir in particular), NEC of Abel Alier and local NEC committee in Bentiu chaired by Michael Mayul.

      All those were under the influence of 2% from the Sudan’s richest Lich state.

      The people have been robbed of their votes and the three institutions mentioned faked votes in the computer and rushed to announce the results before any other state in the South.

      Pathetic!

      A true democratic process will only come under new leadership in 2011!

      The people have to wait!!!

      • 24 April 2010 07:51, by Dinka Boy

        Gatwech,

        accept honorable governor Taban Deng Gai as your second term governor in Unity State. please you will collapse for nothing. I told you before that whether you like it or not Taban will serve for another term but you thought that i am lying.

        Now, choose your destiny before Taban get sworn for the second term in his office. Governor Deng was the favorable governor and that is why people of Unity State vote for him. Haaaaaaa, i love it.

        Thanks governor Deng for your effort and be the re-elected governor like malik Aggar in Blue Nile States. please serve your States once again.
        Thanks

        • 24 April 2010 09:27, by Gatwech

          Dinka Boy,

          God will not give true democratic transformation system and true development of South Sudan to the incompetent Salvatore Kiir.

          God reserves that time for Dr. Riek Machar’s leadership in 2011 where both development and democracy shall flourish and people will be happy in a happy nation.

          Now it is the time for thugs rulling as Prophet Ngundeng predicted that during this interim period he will rule South Sudan with "vultures", please refer to his songs on political situation in Sudan.

          These "vultures" include Taban Deng Gai as Salvatore’s team of "vultures" in the mess.

          But Ngundeng said he would insert among the team of "vultures" a spot of light in the system and that is Dr. Riek Machar to keep the nation moving until the time for vultures has come to an end and his true leadership fully takes over.

          So it is your time guys "vultures’ and enjoy it to the maximum but be assured that the clock is fast ticking. Don’t be surprised soon to hear that ooooops....it is over "vultures"!

          • 24 April 2010 19:00, by mack waweru

            The time has come for poor Tut Gatwech to keep silent or commit suicide because General Taban Deng Gai won the Governorship Unity State. Always crying behind the screen in the West would not help him. He is menance. Die and relieve yourself from the pain SPLM popularity is causing you.

            Mack Awer

      • 24 April 2010 08:26, by SPLA

        Gatwech,

        The SPLM does not care who elected Taban. The only thing that matters is that he is the governor now. The real question we need to know is what are you, Traitor Machar, militiamen Matip and Gatdet going to do now? We have defeated you guys in every battle field during the war and now we are defeating you in the political arena in your own backyards. Shame to you losers.

        Next thing in our minds now is to get rid of that Traitor Machar. I am telling you traitors that Machar will not be vice president for long. SPLM has to get rid of him and it better be done sooner rather then later.

        SPLA

        • 24 April 2010 09:42, by Kim Deng

          Coward Jaang,

          King Taban declared himself to remain in his Thrown for the rest of his life in Liech/Unity State since day one, but it seems like you want him to be your King in your poor States.

          The next step at the movement is to invite you coward Jaang/Slaves and celebrate King’s birth day with us in Bentiu. Don’t be confused, King Taban Deng Gai is not for Nuerland as a whole as you may assume, but Nuer Genesis homeland known as Liech/Unity State.

      • 24 April 2010 19:57, by Apalangorok

        Gatwich
        What is your proble with elected Governor of great people of unity atate, Hon Gen,Taban Taban Deng Gai. your reason to hate Taban is personal and base on tribal line, Hon Taban has brought a great change to Unity. I know your fail elected woman Anjelina should run around and disturb Hon Abel Alier by phone by call. There is nothing Abel can do as Taban has been elected by his people. Stop running aroud in website join us by Congritulating Hon Taban Gai Deng as our great elected governor of Unity State.

        Agutayook

    • 24 April 2010 18:09, by Peace Lover

      Dog. Gatwech,

      Do you know what you kept preaching long time ago now come true to your own people. Look at the peaceful election in Eastern Equatoria, because no body was hoping violence to happen.

      Look at your dump NUER people what are they thinking now Taban Deng is already the winner, that it. Let them accept why violences.

      The only complicating the south are NUER with their DOG MACHAR.

      I hope they should from other states how the democarcy works.

    • 25 April 2010 04:40, by junub

      Beside all crappy saying from looser Gatwich and his alike about the victory of Tyson Taban Deng Gai, I dares to convey my trillion congrats to Unity State winning governor of Unity State, Tyson Taban Deng Gai for his landslide victory over looser Angelina, the former ex-wife of traitor Riak Machar.

      Gatwich should flew back to Bantiu and kills himself in front of votes who overwhelmingly casted their votes to governor Tyson Taban Deng Gai. If he Gatwich resorted to belives nonsense that president Kiir, Abel Alier, and Manyul hands are behind Tyson Taban’s victory over ex-wife of traitor Riak Machar.

      This outcome was what we just told you Gatwich that governor Tyson Taban will still emerged victorous governor of Unity State, but ruefully you refused to buy the truth we were telling because of your pathetic illusion that militia ex-wife Angelina might wins in these elections. Just be sorry to yourself because your dream was actually nightmare as far as we know.

      By the way, am on my exams right now but will be back in soon once am done. May peace and love be with people`s leader (governor Tyson Taban) and the greaters voters and true SPLM members in Unity State. Long life to Tyson and you folks, bye.

  • 24 April 2010 07:26, by maumau

    Even if he wins the election, he can still refuse to take up the role as the president of the republic of Sudan. MAUMAU

  • 24 April 2010 07:27, by murlescrewed

    Traitors who came up with the brilliant idea to pull CDE Arman out of the poll are now left with little but shame. Instead of taking time to explain that this move was motivate by secret political dealings, they went ahead and lied to us. This just shows that neither the NCP or SPLM wanted Sudanese to really exercise their democratic will.

    Al-Bashir will surely start acting up as soon as he is sworn in. He has already started planning an all-out war in Darfur to defeat JEM militarily while fooling the world and Chad about the peace talks.

    Once his project in Darfur is complete, he will turn his full attention to making security in the South as hellish as possible to the point that the referendum will not be held. And if the referendum goes ahead, there are many ways Bashir can thwart the hopes the separatists who have decided to put all their eggs in a basket called NCP.

    • 24 April 2010 07:44, by Gatwech

      Murlescrewed,

      Yasser pulled himself out fearing defeat in the North. Have you checked how many people voted for him in the North?

      So he did not also believe in the minority votes from the South, his new base of adoption.

      Just say that may be the decision to pull him out was a co-incident with the wish of the SPLM leadership. But initially it came from Yasser Arman and then the leadership accepted it.

      Shamefully enough Yasser pulled out after receiving the money for elections in the North. He took the money then boycotted the whole process in the North. Where is that millions of money. He and Pagan Amum have to answer for that.

      We don’t want a repeat of 60 million dollars given to Garang in 2005 and just got disappeared. Bashir disclosed that all over media that time. Arthur Akwen Chol, the form finance minister that time said Pagan Amum took some share of that money from Garang.

      Now Yasser Aram is being shamed by including him in the race despite his withdrawal. Bashir will be proud that he defeated him when the NEC declared Yasser’s "mock" results.

      So Sudan’s history in the future will talk of elections where the SPLM candidate was defeated.

      Shame!!!

      • 17 January 2011 23:24, by SPLA(THE ANTI-RACISTS)

        GATWECH,

        1st of all, let me begin by mentioning how stupid you sound.For a moment there you seemed quite educated but the nonsense you say is just a waste of space...DUDE can you wake up and stop bein so gullible nd listening to everything you hear...MAN!get a mind of your own...Can’t beleive people like you actually still exist in our generation...so full of hatred and racist based agenda’s...

        Yasir Arman did not take no money no where you idiot...al those rally’s that were done before the decision to boycot the elections, what money do you think was being used...and you even dare to mention DR GARANG’s name in your stupidity!the 1 person who helped you rise to the level of even mere education and free from slavery!!!how about you just shut up anad go join your beloved Bashir in celebrating his "victory"!now that the referendum is done where are u going?the south or the north?cause you dont seem to appreciate the SPLM and there the ones who are actually suffering day and night to gurantee the sudan’s people libration from the dictatorship of Bashir and just did that for southern sudan. Your the people who just feed off other peoples sweat...the least you can do is appreciate since you aren’t contributin...AND JUST STO BLUFFIN TRASH!!!!

  • 24 April 2010 07:42, by Dinka Boy

    Dear South Sudanese,

    CDR Yasir Arman win by more than 90% in the South and Omer Bashier by 5%.
    I really deplore SPLM leaders by scaring the arman Supporters in the North for the withdrawing of Arman in the race against Bashier because he would have win the election miserablly in Sudan.

    He would have win South like now, Blue State, South Kordufan, Darfur,and even some favorable votes in the North.
    This is agreat mistake did by SPLM and this will not make people like me happy because there is no way that we just leave the comfortable presidency to the criminal.

    Now, it is time for SPLM to secure 2011 under Bashier otherwise the guy when to make manipulation with his hostile regime whom we know.
    Now, You South Sudanese can just simply see or hear their ill arguments about the 51% and the percentages that will determine the secede of South Sudanese.
    2011 will be the most difficult task activity in the South, why? because we have many weak heart in the South who love Bashier more then SPLM leader.
    Shame to those who caste their vote to Bashier. Bashier is lucky this time other he would be out for Sure against CDR Arman Saeed.

    • 24 April 2010 07:48, by Gatwech

      No body likes Yasser Arman in the North except his clan members. To them he is a traitor.

      Now Bashir will enjoy the upcoming NEC’s announcement that he has won the presidential race and defeated Yasser Arman, SPLM candidate.

      So Sudan’s history will be teaching about 2010 elections where SPLM’s candidate was defeated.

      Shame!

      • 24 April 2010 16:32, by Manyang

        Gatwech

        You are confused individual. It seem as if you are upset about the withdrawal of the SPLM candidate. you wrote "So Sudan’s history will be teaching about 2010 elections where SPLM’s candidate was defeated. Shame!" What do you mean by the above statement?

        Gatwech you lack vision and direction. You applauded the withdrawal of the SPLM candidate. You said it was a wise a decision. Now you are coming to your political senses because of the defeat of your heroine Angelina. You will learn in the hard way. Be inform that the withdrawal of the SPLM candidate was a worse decision ever made by SPLM.

        I congratulate you Gatwech for acknowledging the truth indirectly in your statement.

      • 17 January 2011 23:41, by SPLA(THE ANTI-RACISTS)

        OH MY GOD...PEOPLE...WHAT IS WRONG WITH THIS GATWECH GUY!!!its like you live in a hole and only pop your head out to spit out the dirt!!!unless you’ll be the one writing the history, i highly doubt it will even be about defeat or winning...but about the people of Sudan and the chance they failed to be given by the Bashir regime to cast their votes as they pleased. The BIG DECISION taken by the SPLA to pull out of the elections because they had the interest of the people at heart and not their own!!!

        so in this case the SHAME is on you for not understanding from where you got the strength tp get to where you are and even get your mouth running in affairs that you dont have a solid understanding of!!!
        Think of all the people that have lost their lives fighting for Sudan, the cause, visions and values they stood for...well am talking about those with genuine just causes and look at Sudan and the political systems.who do you think is still honouring those values and living by the visions of our lost ones, one of them being DR JOHN GARANG DE MABIOR.so before posting other negative,racist comments, try thinking of this...am sure u still got that reasonable part of you in there.
        if this doesn’t work, then your officially a self centered individual with only personal gain at heart...

    • 24 April 2010 08:36, by Mike Mike

      The way that the government of South Sudan conducted the recent election was really very poor and i think no one will come from all the independent candidates who are contesting against SPLM official nominees all over the Southern states. In NBG state Aweil alot of confusion has occured and all that shows there is fraud and irrigularities on the elecion results and badness of it i thought the SPLM leadership may wake up and try to stop all these messes that took place in all ten States of South Sudan. Taban and Anglina are all from Unity state and the can be treated equally and the NEC should not sidelining with one side. All in all our blame goes to the president of South Sudan because he is the one who is telling those people to do all these problem otherwise if not him then why is he been keeping quite without interfering to intervene this bad situation?. Who else does he think he will calm down this political struggling which is been going on since the process of election started last december- 2009?. If this is the type of a government which is going to govern us when the South seperate from the North then we will be in other war among ourselves. Since our late Dr. John was killed by the plane, the people of the South have never stayed in good atmosperic situation because of the bad leadership which has been imposed on people by the current poor administration of salva kiir.

  • 24 April 2010 08:47, by Jacob

    Dear friends, thinkers and readers, there is no way for abusing each other.Yasir was not acoward like other people put it or view it.It was a political move by the SPLM as a party for a reason best known to them. Dear readers let respect oxne another in all aspect. Today , the politic in the Sudan has taken different rout because in the history of the Sudan there has never been an election like what we witeness today.
    Therefore, let give thank to God to bless our leaders both lossers and the winners. Politic is like afootball where there is winners and the lossers.So friends let Think Big.

    Sudan OYee, Southern Sudan Oyee.
    Referendum Oyee

  • 24 April 2010 16:16, by Gatwech

    Dear readers,

    Just forget about the current demo-crazy in South Sudan.

    God will not give true democratic transformation system and true development of South Sudan to the incompetent and coward Salvatore Kiir Miyerdit.

    He doesn’t deserve this system to truly come under his administration!

    God reserves that time for Dr. Riek Machar’s leadership in 2011 where both development (with sky scrappers, tall buildings replacing grass huts in every city and town, big high ways connecting every town through village in the South, shinning modern cities with all facilities available, rich in agriculture where hunger is a history, South Sudan Armed Forces with fighter jets, etc) and democracy (WITH FREE AND FAIR ELECTIONS AND TRULY DEMOCRATICALLY CHOSEN LEADERS, ETC) shall flourish and people will be happy in a happy nation.

    Now it is the time for thugs rulling as Prophet Ngundeng predicted that during this interim period he will rule South Sudan with "vultures", please refer to his songs of predictions composed more than hundred years ago on the current political situation in Sudan.

    These "vultures" include Taban Deng Gai as Salvatore’s team of "vultures" in the mess.

    But Ngundeng said in order to push for change he would insert among the team of "vultures" a "spot of light" in the system and that is Dr. Riek Machar to keep the nation moving until the time for vultures has come to an end and his true leadership fully takes over.

    So it is your time guys "vultures’ and enjoy it to the maximum but be assured that the clock is fast ticking. Don’t be surprised soon to hear that ooooops....it is over "vultures"!

    • 24 April 2010 21:09, by kalkada

      to
      Gatwich, Gatwoman

      the fact of the matter is that, Arman won in the South by 90% and in the blue NIle and Nuba Mountains by 85%, and in the North by 55% do the the maths, you Idiot.

      Ask your self, why the NEC.delays the announcement of the results three times?
      because the NEC. want to play with the numbers in favor of NCP.

      Youtube is blocked now in Sudan, over the Video of NCP members filling up election cards.

      Gatwech, Can you convince the readers, why all this happen? and Stop running your Stinky mouth, you Idiot.

  • 24 April 2010 19:49, by babadit

    Arabs NIF/NCP may not win the Election as they cliams, because if you see how Arman got votes in some areas in the south it will be diffcult for him to secure the 90% they are talking about, some polling stations in magwi EES, omer got 2,875 while Arman got 96,470 votes, kapoeta south omer 2 votes, Arman got 13,916 votes, kapoeta north omer 1,143 votes while Arman 51,784 votes, kapoeta East omer 02 while Arman got 13,326 votes those are the figures that are real and who are you telling us that he will secure 90 % votes
    changes are a force itself so even if they play their trick no one will recoganise their government.
    shame on them



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