Prospects of success for the British initiative on Darfur
By Mahmoud A. Suleiman
April 27, 2008 — News media reports indicated that Britain has offered to host peace talks on the strife-torn Sudanese region of Darfur under proposals put forward by Prime Minister Gordon Brown, and that a Downing Street spokesman said: “Britain is willing to invite all parties to London for talks to see if there is a way to make some progress.” Furthermore, it is understood that British officials have been in contact with the Khartoum regime and rebel groups to offer the possibility of a summit. This British initiative seems to have coincided with the fifth anniversary of the start of the Darfur conflict and also when activists in 30 countries prepared to hold a global day of action. The media also quoted the British Prime Minister as saying that he was frustrated at the “appalling situation and the slow progress” in brokering peace talks. What’s more, Mr. Brown was reported to have promised to bring up the issue of deploying peacekeepers in Darfur during talks with US President George W. Bush and UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon in the United States.
The neighbouring countries of the region in African such as Kenya, Nigeria, Eritrea, Chad, Egypt and Libya have contributed immensely to resolve the crisis in Darfur through peace talks by bringing the warring parties into the negotiating table. Kenya brokered the Naivasha peace talks between the Government of Sudan (GOS) and the Sudan Peoples Liberation Army/Movement (SPLA/M with a resultant of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), and now Kenya is preoccupied with its own internal problems; Nigeria was the arbiter for the Abuja talks that gave birth to the stillborn so-called Darfur Peace Agreement (DPA); Eritrea has sponsored the Eastern of Sudan peace Agreement (ESPA), Chad paid a heavy price and shouldered heavy burden for its arbitration role in the Darfur crisis and Egypt took the file of the Sudanese party and trade union opposition grouping of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). The city of Sirte in Libya was the last venue for negotiations on Darfur in Africa in October 2007. The heavy weight South Africa which was thought to be a possible host and arbiter for Darfur peace negotiations is now preoccupied with the problems of its neighbour Zimbabwe. In short, all the neighbouring countries took the chance for trying to bring an end to the five-years on catastrophic suffering of the 8 million people of Sudan in Darfur.
Accordingly, one would find it timely and appropriate that the United Kingdom has pledged to host Darfur peace talks in the foreseeable future in London. Analysts believe that Britain is not just a (donor) to host the Darfur peace talks, but it has interests in the Horn of Africa and for being the former colonial power who annexed Darfur region to Sudan (1916 -1898) after 18 years in 1916. The French could have pledged in hosting Darfur peace talks out of their interests in Chad, the Central African Republic and the Sahel and Sahara strip which are in close proximity to the Darfur region. The role and interest of the French in the European Union force (EUFOR) to Chad/Sudan border is obvious.
In the circumstances and in light of the foregoing background, one would like to discuss the prospects for the success of the British initiative in the following points:
1 – The British initiative is a commendable worthwhile effort that deserves support.
2 – The initiative has been welcome by some Darfur rebel groups who expressed their interest to see more details about it.
3- Observers think that the government of Sudan (GOS) is expected to be hesitant in embracing the British initiative unreservedly, given the fact that the United Kingdom was the key member in engineering the Resolutions issued by the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), which amounted to nearly ten resolutions, that virtually put the region of Darfur in practice under the UN Trusteeship (Guardianship) and along with the most dreaded UNSC Resolution 1593 that referred the Darfur war crimes and crimes against Humanity suspects for trial at the International Criminal Court (ICC) at The Hague. Moreover, the GOS will be suspicious about the British offer, given the strategic alliance between the two Anglo-Saxon cousins the US-UK association!
4- There remains a major obstacle in respect to which of the fragmented Darfur rebel movements to attend the London brokered peace talks. The reasons for the abject failure of the AU-UN brokered Darfur talks hosted at the city of Sirte in Libya in October 2007 was the boycott by the Sudan Liberation Army/M (SLM/A) Chairman, Abdel Wahid Mohamed Nour and Dr. Khalil Ibrahim Mohammed Chairman of Sudan Justice and Equality Movement (JEM). Earlier Dr. Ibrahim criticised the African Union and United Nations envoys – Jan Eliasson and Salim Ahmed Salim for their ill preparation for the talks into which they invited splinter groups, not credible movements. Dr. Khalil Ibrahim He said that JEM would not attend any talks if the splinter groups were present as the talks would be chaotic and lead to no where. JEM says that it is the only armed Darfur movement that has a presence on the ground and has been fiercely fighting, in self defence and to protect the civilians, the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and its allied militias causing them suffer string of major defeats, and reportedly.
5- Political analysts might assert and say: “even if we left aside the fears of the government of Sudan (GOS), the British initiative is also prone to rejection and/or failure by the major Darfur rebel movements to sit around the same negotiating table in the presence of the dozen splinter groups that can only be seen through their propaganda machine in the Worldwide Web, the internet!”. The task of who of the rebel groups to be invited by the British will be monumental. The major blame will continue to haunt Jan Eliasson of the UN and Salim Ahmed Salim of the AU, the Joint Mediation, though. The reported possibility of appointing the Algerian diplomat Mohamed Sahnoun as a Chief Mediator for Darfur may facilitate progress towards resolving the present stalemate. The appointment of the new US special envoy to Sudan Ambassador Richard Williamson who seems to be prepared to engage the main Darfur rebel movements such as JEM into dialogue more than his predecessors may help speeding up the political process in Darfur.
6- The way forward for the Darfur peace talks to be successful, the International Community (United Nations) and (African Union) to have the will to act rather than pay lip service, “Actions speak louder than words”! They need to understand the new developments on the ground in Darfur since the Abuja and try to setup clear standards and arrangements acceptable to the main armed Darfur rebel movements based on criteria that allow which of the movement to attend any upcoming peace negotiations.
Will the British initiative to host the upcoming Darfur peace talks announced by Prime Minister Gordon Brown on the 5th Global Day for Darfur in London succeed? Another Sixty Four Dollar Question ($64 question) awaits for an answer!
Dr. Mahmoud A. Suleiman is the Deputy Chairman of the General Congress for Justice and Equality Movement (JEM). He can be reached at [email protected]