What Sudan’s NCP can expect from an Obama win

By Mariar Wuoi

October 30, 2008 — The American foreign policy toward Sudan does not exhibit much change no matter what party wins the election. It is a strange fact but it mirrors the kind of foreign policy posture that the United States maintains when it comes to Israeli-Palestinian conflict. That does not imply that there are no areas where we see noticeable differences. Under the Clinton administration, the United States pursued a more aggressive foreign policy towards Sudan. It went far more often for sticks than carrots. Case in point, it was under the Clinton administration that Sudan was labeled a terrorist state and slapped with sweeping sanctions that continue to be in place today. The republican administrations have been more inclined to encourage Sudan to change its behavior and where possible, promised normalization of relations and even lifting of sanctions. Clinton administration on the other hand encouraged the frontline states such as Uganda, Kenya, Ethiopia and Eritrea to maintain a hostile posture towards Islamists in Khartoum.

With the real possibility of Senator Barack Obama winning the elections in about five days, the NCP foreign policy team is resigned to yet another bad four years. It is like watching your worst nightmares come to life and you are completely powerless to do anything about it. Obama’s victory will usher in a foreign policy team that is mostly made up of former Clinton people. Among them is Dr. Susan Rice (no relation to Dr. Condoleezza Rice). She was the Assistant Secretary of States for African Affairs at the Clinton’s state department and is a known advocate against NCP cabal. Under Obama, she is likely to hold a very important office since she is currently one of his leading foreign policy advisers. Another important member of the Obama administration is his vice president designate, Sen. Joe Biden Jr. of Delaware. During the debate, he unequivocally stated that he supports a No Fly Zone across Darfur to prevent the Sudanese government from conducting indiscriminate bombings of civilian targets.

The NCP intelligence chief, Salah Gosh, boastfully stated that he averted the collapse of Igaz regime by cooperating with the CIA following al-Qaeda’s attacks on America. It also helped that the NCP suddenly became serious about reaching peace in the South or face some unspecified consequences. The Bush administration was more than eager to accommodate the NCP government as long as they met the minimum requirements. The intelligence cooperation far outweighed the massacre that was taking place across Darfur in the early part of the 2003. The value of this intelligence cooperation remains unknown to the rest of us but it must have been worth the effort. Such cooperation will not be possible under an Obama administration because it will demand to see an end to genocide in Darfur.

With such immense odds stack against it, the NCP will have to rethink its priorities and behave accordingly. The United States might not go as far as changing a regime but will create conditions that will accelerate the demise of Al-Bashir’s government. One accelerant is the looming arrest warrant for the NCP leader. The US will clearly put pressure on countries to execute such an arrest warrant. There is also the internal turmoil that is likely to follow should Al-Bashir be indeed indicted. Egypt has sounded alarms that Sudan faces disintegration and internal chaos that have not been witnessed in the recent memory. We can always trust Egypt’s assessment because they know more about what is going on in Sudan including the meal that Al-Bashir is going to have for breakfast tomorrow. Al-Bashir is reigning over divided loyalties and mistrust that is going to boil over in the near future. There is the Ali Osman Taha, Nafie Ali Nafie, Salah Gosh and his intelligence crew, and Al-Bashir and the army. Add a more aggressive US policy towards Sudan to the mix and you will have the perfect recipe for real political shift. In fact, there could be a violent and bloody power struggle among these powerful forces that Sudan may not be the same.

The NCP has probably done some contingency planning and might sail through the storm. However, there is no mistaking the calamities that a democrat win might bring. Sudan can survive sanction after sanction by turning to China but it cannot survive a more aggressive US involvement in Darfur and elsewhere. It is no wonder that the Sudanese government is busy trying to popularize the Sudan People Initiative in order to internalize the problem. They should have taken advantage of the Bush administration and reach a real peace in Darfur. Now, they will be faced with a determined Obama who has made no secrets about his feelings toward the NCP government.

The author is a Sudanese living in the United States. He can be reached at [email protected]