South Sudan Teeters on Brink of Renewed War, Regional Mediation Urged

March 7, 2025 (JUBA) – South Sudan risks a return to full-blown war following clashes in Upper Nile state, the International Crisis Group warned, urging regional leaders to intervene and de-escalate tensions between President Salva Kiir and Vice President Riek Machar.

A Nuer militia with ties to Machar overran a government army base in Nasir, near the Ethiopian border, on March 4th. Machar has accused Kiir’s forces of initiating attacks on his troops. The incident has heightened tensions in the capital, Juba, with Kiir arresting several of Machar’s allies, threatening the fragile 2018 peace deal that ended a five-year civil war.

“Hostilities in Upper Nile could be the first major violent spillover from Sudan’s war into South Sudan,” the Crisis Group said in a statement. The think tank suggested that the Sudanese army, seeking to disrupt the supply lines of the rival Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan, might be supplying the Nuer militia, exploiting historical ethnic divisions between Kiir’s Dinka and Machar’s Nuer groups.

The 2018 peace agreement has been tenuous, punctuated by localized violence. The current crisis is exacerbated by the war in neighbouring Sudan, which has severely impacted South Sudan’s economy. A damaged oil pipeline, crucial for South Sudan’s revenue, has cut state income by two-thirds, the report shows. The economic strain and the need to negotiate with both warring parties in Sudan have put Kiir’s government under severe pressure.

There is concern the fighting may expand. The Crisis Group notes a battle for the multi-ethnic city of Malakal, the Upper Nile state capital, could trigger widespread ethnic violence. It is also unclear to what degree Machar has control over the militia.

“Some in Juba fear that the Nuer militias may next try to take Malakal… It is a multi-ethnic city, and fighting there could see communal massacres that might, in turn, trigger fighting in the rest of the state or throughout the country,” the statement reads.

Further complicating the situation, Major General Majur Dak, a Dinka commander of the base of Nasir, was killed on March 7th during UN rescue attempts.

Kenyan President William Ruto has spoken with both Kiir and Machar. Crisis Group suggests he coordinates with other regional players, including South African President Cyril Ramaphosa and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, to mediate. With a significant peacekeeping presence in South Sudan, the United Nations is urged to help with diplomatic efforts and protect civilians.

“South Sudan is slipping rapidly toward full-blown war. Renewed civil war in South Sudan would merge with the war in neighbouring Sudan and prove very difficult to resolve. The region could slip into one large proxy war,” said Alan Boswell, Crisis Group’s Horn of Africa Director.

The civil war in South Sudan, lasting from 2013 to 2018, resulted in an estimated 400,000 deaths, and the 2018 peace agreement was designed to stop it.