US must do more to rescue the CPA

“The role of the United States of America is indispensable to the full implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA)”.

ByJustin Ambago Ramba

November 13, 2009 — As we can all see, it is now clear that the American envoy to the Sudan has completely failed in his mission to bring the National Congress Party (NCP) and the former Southern rebels of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) to any fruitful conclusion in as far as the implementation of the contested issues are concerned and unfortunately he has decided to run away after realizing that his completely naïve diplomacy has crumbled before his own eyes as it only made the Islamic fundamentalists of Khartoum more adamant and stubborn.

At this juncture it is clear that there will be no General Elections in Sudan if the NCP insists on using the disputed 5tg Census results – the current unconstitutional Security Laws – the no Border demarcation, especially so in the oil field areas – Not passing the Referendum, The Popular Consultations and the Security Bills before the end of this month, November 2009.

And indeed there are arguments from some Western sources on how the Census was rigged. It claims that while the South’s Census authorities naively and out of good faith shared their crude Census data with their counterparts in the North, however the crafty National Congress Party (NCP) immediately reacted to the information by inflating their population especially in insecure areas like southern Darfur (homeland to the notorious Murahaleen Arabs, the Rezeigat and other nomadic groups like the Ambororo which all form the backbone of the pro-government Janjaweed Militias).

Now this well executed political rigging was carried out with the calculated intension to reduce the South Sudan’s population to only 20 percent of the total population of the Sudan (from the widely believed 33 percent that was adopted in the CPA and the Interim Constitution as the basis for Wealth and Power sharing). Of course the NCP knows that the SPLM or any other Southerner for that matter can never have access to the original crude data for the head count that was carried out in Northern Sudan and even more especially so if the dirty game was largely played on the counts that came from the chaotic Darfur Region.

As such it is indisputable that any parliament that will come up in Khartoum based on the rigged 5th Census results will be composed of 80+ percent Northerners. Now any bill to be passed by such a rigged parliamentary majority will definitely decide to abrogate the Referendum for the Self –Determination of South Sudan in the name of democracy and as easy, as that.

It is well anticipated that at this stage, the NCP will comfortably continue to frustrate the SPLM peace partner while insisting for elections to go ahead and no Referendum if not proceeded by the already rigged General Elections.

As for the Security Bill, the NCP for its own survival needs to maintain this Security organ with all its ruthless and unconstitutional Laws, especially the limitless impunity enjoyed by these organs in violating Human Rights in all its most disgusting forms. These Security Forces in their unconstitutional forms provide just the right tools that are badly needed to finalize the rigging of the Elections then the Referendum, especially so in the remote areas of the war ravaged Darfur, where the ghost voters have already been created by inflating the head count in those areas.

The NCP will continue to frustrate the SPLM with the ultimate goal of either forcing it to succumb and allow an already rigged Election or take the tough option of unilaterally declaring the Independence of South Sudan, thus risking being held responsible for unilaterally abrogating the CPA.

But as things stand, it is very clear and even more than ever before that the NCP will never want to be a party to any peaceful political divorce between the North and the South in its attempt to control the South’s Oil Fields especially those that lie along the North/ South borders, which explains the NCP’S reluctance to border demarcation in violation of the CPA, a typical manner quite characteristic of its(NCP)attitudes towards the implementation of the whole peace agreement right from day one.

So if any one is to ask whether the North and the South would ever go back to war, the answer is that they are already at war , though at this stage it is still being fought by proxy as can be seen in the widespread insecurity that have engulfed the whole of South Sudan as a result to the inter-tribal fights which is more clearly seen in the Unity – Jonglei – Upper Nile – Eastern Equatoria – Central Equatoria – Lakes – Warrap States as well as the activities of the notorious Ugandan rebels of the Lords Resistance Army (LRA), led by the fugitive Joseph Konyi in Western Equatoria State (WES) and recently in Raja, Western Bahr al Ghazal State. These may be any time soon followed by the “Oil and Border War”, along the North/South Border, that can be sparked by whosoever fires the first bullet.

The Way Forward

We are all aware that All True South Sudanese Nationalists are willing to go to any lengths in order to secure the secession of South Sudan. And with the existing stalemate between the NCP and the SPLM on the Census results that have already been unanimously rejected by all levels of governments in the South, no doubt offers a fertile breeding ground for all kinds of uncertainties. And as these Census results remain illegal in South Sudan, the NCP shouldn’t be allowed to impose it to be used neither in the forth coming General Elections nor the Referendum that is to follow. Also there still exists a serious disagreement over the Referendum bill. But worse still is the all avoidable scenario , that once the current parliament is dissolved without it passing the outstanding bills that should have been passed two years ago, we would be automatically entering the no man’s land.

In fact in the absence of any forth coming solutions from the International Community to save the situation, then South Sudan in its effort to realize its dreams will have no choice but to embrace the only left option, and that is to unilaterally declare its Independence (UDI). And as the clock ticks, UDI becomes more and more unavoidable and in many ways represents the only choice that really carries any dignifiedly value for the people of South Sudan.

In line with the above I am of the suggestion that all the Southern Sudanese political parties and civil societies while working relentlessly to realize the much needed democratic transformation in the country, as well as the quest to have a fair and free General Elections and an internationally monitored Referendum based on a simple majority of the votes , we should also join hands and recruit our energies, available resources and opportunities to expose the wickedness of the dominant Islamic fundamentalists of the NIF/NCP headed by the indicted and fugitive President Omer al Bashir. We must bring everything to the notice of the International Community and our friends in the USA and Europe who have all the way showed a great understanding and limitless support for our genuine Cause. We also need to sensitize our sisters and brothers all over the sub Saharan Africa together with all the Peace loving people of the entire world about the current developments in the Sudanese political arena. The world must be made to acknowledge the fact that the CPA is already on its way to the grave, thus marking its last resting place without even bringing about the much anticipated democratic transformation in the Sudan simply because the Islamic fanatics of the NIF/NCP do not believe in any democracy. While for the people of South Sudan who have already fought two bitter wars against the domineering North over the period extending from 1955 to 2005, would want to secede now and have there own Independent State whatsoever that may mean or cost.

The whole world should be made to understand our justifications with much insight and open mindedness when we (people of South Sudan) finally resort to the unilateral declaration of independence (UDI) as a direct result of the breakdown in communication between the SPLM and the power thirsty NCP .We should also be aware that this last resort of UDI however has its ups and downs at all levels of the world politics which we should completely come into terms with and must jointly work hard to overcome. And once we have made our point clearly enough for the world to understand, there after come what may we would be ready to put with the consequences

On the other hand should it become the international community’s wish to avoid any major bloodbath that might follow a Unilateral Declaration of Independence in South Sudan, then it is still possible for the USA administration, the European Union(EU) and the African Union (AU) and other regional bodies to put up the right magnitude of pressure needed on Khartoum’s NIF/NCP administration forcing it to reverse its unconstitutional stands on the outstanding issues as all its current negativism on the implementation of the CPA can only breed more anti – North sentiments among the Southerners thus strengthening their determination for a separate state using all available means at their disposal regardless of the human costs that might follow. And it must be stressed and put in mind that should a third war break, it would be the first time that the Northern Sudanese civilians will have a taste of their share of the bitterness of a civil war as most of this will be fought at the North/South border areas.

Last but not least, the Right to Self – Determination that has been granted to the people of South Sudan in the CPA remains a legitimate right and in no way should the US administration allow the greedy NIF/NCP to mess around with and keep holding South Sudan as hostage in its unwinnable battle with the International Criminal Court (ICC) which indicted President Al Bashir over his role in the war crimes and the crimes against humanity that were committed in Darfur. Hence the role of the USA, the EU, the AU and the entire International Community remains indispensable to the full implementation of the CPA both in spirit and to the letter; otherwise we should all be prepared for the inevitable.

Dr. Justin Ambago Ramba, MB, BCh, DRH, MD. Secretary General of the United South Sudan Party (USSP). The party that stands for the independence of South Sudan. Can be reached at either [email protected] or [email protected]