The decisive battle of South Sudan as predicted by analysts

By Steve Paterno

January 12, 2014 – The war in South Sudan is still raging, with countless of losses of lives and an imaginable destructions. South Sudan’s observers predict an imminent all out war, in an event the next round of IGAD mediated peace talks fails to yield peaceful result.

The fact is, there is no imminent prospect for signing a negotiated settlement. The parties to the conflict are world apart on issues, especially due to the fact that some of the proposals by the rebels are just outright ridiculous to even meet in the middle.

The mediators know of those facts, which are impeding a peaceful settlement, but yet cannot fault themselves. From the get go, the mediators got it wrong. The conflict that supposed to end within days or perhaps within weeks is now dragging on for over a year, without any prospect for an end. A disorganised coup plot that went awry seems to show a contiguous effect on the mediators. It is about time for the mediators to rethink as to who to practically engaged to end the war.

As for the government, it has already proven to be holding the upper hand. Militarily, the government reduced and pushed the rebel forces into the peripheries along the Sudan and Ethiopia borders. The government military victories seem to suggest that the overly exaggerated and predicted ‘all out war’ will be in favour of the government. The government is also proving its legitimacy by carrying out general elections so as to avoid a constitutional vacuum that anti government forces are ready to exploit.

Now the challenge is thrown into the rebels’ court. We are yet to see how the rebels will manoeuvre and handle the process, especially with the reported rumours of fractures among the rebels leadership.