Sudan extreme poverty to hit 60% by 2030 if war continues, UNDP says
April 14, 2026 (KHARTOUM) – Sudan faces a developmental collapse with extreme poverty projected to engulf 60% of the population by 2030 if the ongoing conflict persists, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) said on Tuesday.
In a report released alongside the Institute for Security Studies on the eve of the conflict’s third anniversary, the UNDP painted a grim picture of a nation at a “critical turning point.” The study estimates that 36 million people will fall into extreme poverty by the end of the decade.
While Sudan made progress between 1990 and 2011, reducing poverty from 38.1% to 15.6%, the trend reversed sharply following recent instability. Poverty rates climbed to 45% in 2023, and government figures from late 2025 suggest the war has pushed that figure as high as 71%.
The report, titled “Beyond Conflict: Mapping a Path Toward Sustainable Growth and Development in Sudan,” identifies the war as the primary barrier to progress, citing the systematic destruction of infrastructure and the disruption of essential services.
“The economy lost approximately $6.4 billion in GDP in 2023 alone,” the report stated, noting that the economy contracted by 12% that year. Public debt has soared to 148% of GDP, with external debt accounting for the vast majority.
The human cost has been equally devastating. Estimates suggest over 150,000 deaths, while 24 million people face food insecurity. Agricultural output has plummeted, with millet production dropping by 50% and sorghum by 24% in 2023.
Industrial capacity has also been decimated. The report estimates that 90% of production capability in key regions has been destroyed, largely because two-thirds of the country’s industrial facilities are located in direct conflict zones.
Future projections remain bleak without a cessation of hostilities. If the war continues until 2030, the economy is expected to lose an additional $34.5 billion by 2043. Conversely, an immediate end to the conflict could see GDP reach $58.2 billion by 2043, lifting 17.3 million people out of poverty.
The UNDP emphasized that peace must be coupled with comprehensive governance and agricultural reforms to prevent a total collapse. Sudan’s population is expected to reach 81.7 million by 2043, with over half of the residents under 15, adding further pressure on the country’s dwindling resources.